OPERATION EPIC FURY & OPERATION ROARING LION
The US-Israel War on Iran: Origins, Timeline, Objectives & Stakes
Geopolitical Report
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran — one of the most consequential military operations since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Code-named Operation Epic Fury (US) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel), the campaign targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, military command centres, naval assets, and its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
The strikes followed decades of escalating confrontation, a failed nuclear negotiation track, and Iran’s accelerating enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade levels. Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint — triggering what analysts are calling the worst energy crisis since the 1970s oil embargo.
This report unpacks the war’s roots, the detailed timeline of events, the strategic objectives of all three parties, and what each stands to gain — or lose — in the weeks ahead.
Part I: The Roots — Decades in the Making
Iran’s Nuclear Ambition
Iran’s nuclear programme has been the central flashpoint in its conflict with the West for over two decades. A nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — was struck in 2015, placing limits on Iran’s enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. But in 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, arguing it did not adequately address Iran’s missile programme, its regional proxy network, or the deal’s sunset clauses.
The decision set in motion a cycle of maximum pressure, sanctions, covert operations, and ultimately, war.
By early 2025, Iran was enriching uranium to 60% purity — a technical whisker from weapons-grade — and had restricted IAEA inspectors from monitoring its facilities. In February 2026, an IAEA report confirmed that Iran had hidden a significant stockpile of highly enriched uranium in an underground facility that had survived previous military strikes.
The report stated that inspectors could no longer confirm Iran’s nuclear activities were exclusively peaceful.
Iran’s Regional Proxy Network
Beyond its nuclear programme, Iran has spent decades building a network of allied armed groups — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria — as a strategic buffer against its adversaries.
This ‘Axis of Resistance’, as Tehran calls it, served as Iran’s forward defence system, capable of threatening US forces and Israeli cities without requiring a direct confrontation.
The systematic decimation of this network — through the Gaza war, the assassination of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, and repeated Israeli strikes on Iranian assets — left Tehran more isolated and more dependent on its nuclear card than at any point in its history.
The Final Diplomatic Collapse
In early 2025, Supreme Leader Khamenei formally rejected nuclear talks even as Iran’s enrichment accelerated. In January 2026, Iranian security forces killed thousands of protesters during the largest uprising since the Islamic Revolution — revealing the regime’s internal fragility.
Diplomacy made one final attempt: just two days before the strikes, US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva — mediated by Oman — collapsed without a breakthrough. The White House concluded that Tehran was not negotiating in good faith and would use any further time to advance its weapons programme.
THE OPERATIONS AT A GLANCE
- Operation Epic Fury (United States) — Codename for US military strikes on Iran
- Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) — Codename for Israeli strikes on Iran
- Launch Date: 28 February 2026
- Targets: Nuclear sites, military command, naval assets, senior leadership
- US aircraft involved: 100+ fighters, bombers, tankers, electronic warfare planes
- Targets struck in first 24 hours: Over 1,000
- Key outcome: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed
- Iran’s retaliation: Operation True Promise IV — ballistic missiles, drones, Strait of Hormuz closure
Part II: The War Timeline
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| DATE | EVENT | DETAIL |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | First-ever direct Israel-Iran missile exchange | The first direct military confrontation in the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic — a watershed moment signalling the end of shadow warfare. |
| June 13, 2025 | Israel launches surprise strikes — The Twelve-Day War | Israel bombs military and nuclear sites in Iran, assassinating key military commanders and nuclear scientists. Iran retaliates with 550+ ballistic missiles and 1,000+ drones. |
| June 21–22, 2025 | US joins the fight | The United States strikes Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan alongside Israel — the first direct US military action against Iran. |
| June 24, 2025 | Twelve-Day War ceasefire | A ceasefire is announced but the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear programme remains disputed. Iran begins rebuilding covertly. |
| Jan, 2026 | Iran’s bloodiest crackdown | Iranian security forces kill thousands of protesters during the largest uprising since 1979. The regime survives but its legitimacy is at a historic low. |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Geneva talks collapse | US-Iran nuclear talks mediated by Oman end without a breakthrough. Washington concludes diplomacy has been exhausted. |
| Feb 27, 2026 | IAEA bombshell | The IAEA reveals Iran has hidden highly enriched uranium stockpiles in an underground facility. The report declares Iran’s nuclear programme cannot be confirmed as peaceful. |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Operations begin | The US and Israel launch coordinated strikes under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion. |
| Mar 1–2, 2026 | Iran retaliates — Op. True Promise IV | Iran launches ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. IRGC officially closes the Strait of Hormuz. |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Hezbollah joins the fight | Hezbollah begins firing rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and a limited ground incursion — threatening a second front. |
| Mar 4–6, 2026 | War deepens | US forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets. Confirmed casualties: 1,332 in Iran, 11 in Israel, 6 US soldiers, 9 across Gulf states. At least 5 tankers struck near the Strait. |
Part III: Strategic Objectives — What Each Side Wants
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| PARTY | OBJECTIVES | RISKS & LOSSES |
|---|---|---|
| United States | • Eliminate Iran’s nuclear programme permanently • Destroy Iran’s missile & naval capabilities • End Iran’s regional proxy threat • Achieve regime change or total capitulation |
• Mission creep into ground war (Iraq 2003 precedent) • Only 21% of Americans supported strikes • No strategy for post-regime Iran • Iran can rebuild without continued strikes |
| Israel | • Remove the ‘existential threat’ of Iranian nuclear weapons • Destroy Iran’s ability to arm proxy forces • Achieve regime collapse — ‘state implosion’ • Secure northern border from Hezbollah |
• Interceptor stockpiles already depleted from June 2025 • Hezbollah re-entry threatens a two-front war • Regional isolation if civilian casualties mount • Regime collapse could create a failed state on Iran’s scale |
| Iran | • Regime survival above all else • Maximize economic pain via Hormuz closure • Draw Gulf states and wider region into the conflict • Preserve ideological Islamic Republic system |
• Supreme Leader and senior military killed • Nuclear programme systematically destroyed • Navy and air defences degraded significantly • Economy already contracting — now worsening rapidly |
.CNBC — How the Attack on Iran Could Impact Global Oil & Economy
Part IV: Expert Commentary & Analysis
The fundamental dilemma of any air campaign against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is permanence. Unlike a conventional army that can be defeated in the field, nuclear knowledge and industrial capacity can be buried, dispersed, and reconstructed.
The June 2025 Twelve-Day War demonstrated this — within months, Iran had resumed covert enrichment in undamaged underground facilities.
Without a political settlement or sustained occupation — neither of which Washington or Jerusalem are willing to pursue — military strikes buy time, not resolution.
Al Jazeera — How US-Israel Attacks Threaten the Strait of Hormuz
On the Strait of Hormuz Gambit
“When analysts have looked at the things that could go wrong in global oil markets, this is about as wrong as things could go at any single point of failure.”— Kevin Book, Co-Founder, Clearview Energy Partners
Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy has proven devastatingly effective — and cheap. Rather than attempting a naval blockade that US forces could dismantle, Tehran deployed selective drone strikes near the waterway. Within hours, insurers withdrew coverage, shipping companies suspended operations, and traffic ground to near-zero. Iran achieved a de facto closure without firing a single anti-ship missile at a warship. This is a masterclass in asymmetric economic warfare.
Part V: Key Figures & Their Roles
| FIGURE | ROLE & SIGNIFICANCE |
| Ali Khamenei (KILLED) | Iran’s Supreme Leader for 34 years. His assassination removes the single most powerful decision-maker in the Islamic Republic, triggering a constitutional succession crisis and power struggle among senior clerics and the IRGC. |
| Donald Trump | US President. Authorised Operation Epic Fury. Has called on Iranian people to overthrow their government. Stated the operation may last ‘far longer’ than 4–5 weeks. |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | Israeli PM. Authorised Operation Roaring Lion. Described the war as removing ‘the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime.’ Has long argued that only military force can stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. |
| IRGC Leadership | Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls its military, missile forces, and proxy networks. The IRGC — not the civilian government — has control of the Hormuz closure strategy and retaliation decisions. |
| Marco Rubio | US Secretary of State. Has vowed the offensive will ‘increase in scope and intensity.’ Seen as a key architect of the maximum pressure strategy that preceded the strikes. |
| Hassan Nasrallah’s successor (Hezbollah) | Hezbollah’s decision to re-enter the conflict on March 2 is the most dangerous escalation signal beyond Iran itself. Its arsenal still includes over 100,000 rockets aimed at Israel. |
Part VI: Wildcards & Escalation Scenarios
Scenario 1: Rapid De-escalation (Low Probability)
Iran accepts a ceasefire in exchange for a guarantee that the US will not pursue further regime change operations. The Strait reopens partially. Oil prices stabilise below $90/barrel. Probability: Low, given the depth of US and Israeli stated objectives.
Scenario 2: Contained War (Base Case)
The conflict remains primarily air-based for 4–6 weeks. Iran’s nuclear programme is largely destroyed. The Strait reopens under US naval escort. A new Iranian leadership structure emerges from the chaos. Partial economic normalisation within two months. Markets remain volatile but avoid a full recession shock.
Scenario 3: Regional Escalation (Tail Risk)
Hezbollah commits fully to a second front, drawing Israel into a Lebanon ground war simultaneously. Gulf state infrastructure — particularly Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal or UAE’s Jebel Ali port — sustains significant damage from Iranian missile strikes. Oil hits $130+/barrel. Global recession becomes a near-certainty. Pakistan faces spillover instability on its Iranian border.
Scenario 4: Full Regime Collapse
The Iranian regime implodes internally, driven by Khamenei’s death and a military power struggle. Opposition forces — backed by covert US support — gain control of major cities. A transitional government forms. Iran’s nuclear programme is placed under international supervision. Long-term stabilisation would take years and remain highly uncertain.
Article II will cover the global market and India-specific economic impact.
